In the AFL, droughts are brutal. They linger, they define eras, they etch themselves into the psyche of clubs and supporters alike. For two proud Victorian clubs — Essendon and North Melbourne — the hunger for premiership glory has become something of a slow-burning obsession. Essendon, once a powerhouse, hasn’t won a flag since 2000. North Melbourne, never a club known for grandeur but always for grit, last lifted silverware in 1999. Yet, as the next era of AFL unfolds, it’s North Melbourne — not Essendon — that looks more poised to shatter the glass ceiling first.
That prediction might seem bold, even foolish to some. After all, Essendon boasts a massive supporter base, prime-time fixtures, and a list full of high-end draft talent and mature names. But for all their noise, the Bombers have been treading water for two decades. Culture doesn’t shift with slogans and list rebuilds alone — and Essendon has cycled through both with little to show for it. Finals appearances are few, wins in them even fewer. There’s a softness about the Bombers that continues to surface in the moments that matter. They’ve become a club of almosts. Almost good enough. Almost dangerous. Almost ready. But when you’ve been saying “almost” for 20 years, it’s time to rethink the direction.
North Melbourne, by contrast, has quietly embraced the hard road. Their rebuild has been painful, yes. Their list has been raw, sometimes embarrassingly so. But there’s an honesty in the way the Kangaroos are building that gives hope — not marketing hope, but football hope. Their commitment to youth development has been unwavering, even in the face of heavy losses. They haven’t papered over the cracks with recycled talent. They’ve drafted, invested, and stuck by a long-term plan. That kind of patience — especially in today’s impatient sporting world — is rare, and it often precedes something special.
Key to North Melbourne’s future is the spine they’re developing. Luke Davies-Uniacke is no longer a “next big thing” — he’s becoming a genuine midfield general. Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw are already playing like seasoned pros, despite being teenagers. And in Nick Larkey, they have a forward who can kick big goals without the big ego. There’s a rawness to this group, but also a humility and steel. They’re not players coasting on potential — they’re forging identities in the fire of weekly challenges.
Essendon’s list, while talented, is scattered. They’ve been caught between timelines — trying to win now while still developing youth. The result is inconsistency, a lack of identity, and a playing group that rarely looks cohesive when it counts. They’ve changed coaches, changed systems, and changed the story — but the results haven’t changed. At some point, you have to ask whether the foundation is right, or if the house just keeps getting renovated without addressing the cracks underneath.
Coaching is another battleground in this conversation. Alastair Clarkson didn’t return to the AFL to rebuild slowly — he returned because he sees something worth building. Say what you will about his time at Hawthorn in the final years, but Clarkson remains the best football mind of his generation. If he’s all-in on North, that means something. Brad Scott, coaching Essendon, is stable and smart — but the Bombers haven’t yet shown the same upward trajectory under him. They’ve improved, yes, but not in a way that screams premiership DNA.
North Melbourne may not yet be ready to contend, but you can see the direction. They’re assembling pieces that will grow together, not in fragmented bursts, but as a unified core. Their players will wear the scars of 100-point losses as badges when they eventually climb the ladder. They’ll remember the grind. And when that time comes — whether it’s 2027 or 2029 — they’ll be forged in something more valuable than just talent: resilience.
Essendon will always draw headlines. They’ll always fill the MCG. But flags aren’t won on history. They’re won on systems, culture, alignment and belief. And right now, North Melbourne — the club once dismissed as irrelevant — is building all four.
When the day comes and one of these teams finally breaks through, don’t be surprised if it’s the one that did it the hard way, the honest way, the Shinboner way.
